Identification of ecological restoration standard for lakes on the Inner Mongolia Plateau, China

Determining the Ecological Restoration Standards (ERS) for lakes, within the context of natural climatic conditions, is imperative for the protection of the ecological environment and water resources in northern China. Based on climate data gathered from 49 meteorological stations and water resources survey information conducted in 12 cities situated on the Inner Mongolia Plateau (IMP), this study rigorously quantified the effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the reduction of area of nine lakes located on the IMP. This was achieved by utilizing both the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) and Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) methods. Additionally, it identified the primary drivers behind the shrinkage of these lakes and determined the ERS for the nine lakes based on current natural climatic conditions. The findings indicate that the nine lakes have been shrinking due to human activities, with their areas ranging from 0.77 to 73.09 km2. Daihai Lake has the largest restoration area of 100.26 km2, while Haotongyinchagannar Lake has the smallest restoration area of 13.21 km2. The study further suggests that anthropogenic activities have a greater impact on lake shrinkage compared to the effects of climate change. Overexploitation of groundwater resources stands as the principal factor exacerbating lake shrinkage. Therefore, it is essential to implement an appropriate action plan for the sustainable management and utilization of groundwater resources, particularly by enhancing the efficiency of agricultural irrigation, to ensure the ecological preservation and rehabilitation of lakes located on the IMP.