Research on copper flow and environmental load in China ' s new infrastructure industry for carbon neutrality

With the rapid development of new infrastructure in China, the demand for copper has increased significantly. In 2021, copper consumption in this sector accounted for 9.1% of China's total consumption, becoming a new driving force for copper demand. This study analyzed copper flow characteristics and primary driving factors in China's new infrastructure sectors using the material flow analysis method, quantified the environmental loads of the metabolic processes, and predicted copper demand in the new infrastructure sectors by 2030 through scenario analysis. The primary conclusions drawn are as follows: In 2021, copper consumption in new infrastructure sectors was 1,225,700 tons, with the rail transportation sector accounting for 59.6% and the artificial intelligence sector accounting for 0.6%. The rail transportation sector had the largest total environmental load, with carbon emissions of approximately 3,513,372 tons. From the perspective of tons of copper products, the 5G sector had the highest environmental load, while the big data centers had the lowest. In the seven sectors of new infrastructure, the environmental load contribution rates across the four stages showed little variation, with their proportions being 49.0, 29.8, 15.8, and 5.4%, respectively. Recycling of discarded copper products can effectively reduce industrial energy consumption and carbon emissions. Under the three scenarios set in this study, the copper demand in the new infrastructure sector by 2030 will be 3.856, 3.233, and 2.625 million tons, respectively. Using wind energy to replace coal in copper production can reduce carbon emissions by approximately 43.2%.