Trigger thresholds and their dynamics of vegetation production loss under different atmospheric and soil drought conditions

Many evidences have shown that both atmospheric and soil droughts can constrain vegetation growth and further threaten its ability to sequester carbon. However, the trigger thresholds of vegetation production loss under different atmospheric and soil drought conditions are still unknown. In this study, we proposed a Copula and Bayesian equations-based framework to investigate trigger thresholds of various vegetation production losses under different atmospheric and soil drought conditions. The trigger thresholds dynamics and their possible causes were also investigated. To achieve this goal, we first simulated the gross primary production, soil moisture, and vapor pressure deficit over China during 1961–2018 using an individual-based, spatially explicit dynamic global vegetation model. The main drivers of the dynamic change in trigger thresholds were then explored by Random Forest model. We found that soil drought caused greater stress on gross primary production loss than atmospheric drought, with a larger impact area and higher probability of damage. In terms of spatial distribution, the risk probability of gross primary production loss was higher in eastern China than in western China, and the drought trigger threshold was also smaller in eastern China. In addition, the trigger thresholds for atmospheric and soil drought in most regions exhibited a decreasing trend from 1961 to 2018, while the CO2 fertilization enhanced the drought tolerance of vegetation. The reduction in CO2 fertilization effect slowed down the downward trend of trigger threshold for soil drought, while the increase in temperature exacerbated the downward trend of trigger threshold for atmospheric drought. This study highlighted the larger effect of soil drought on vegetation production loss than atmospheric drought and implied that climate change can modulate the trigger threshold of vegetation production losses under drought conditions. These findings provide scientific guidance for managing the increasing risk of drought on vegetation and optimizing watershed water allocation.