Evidence of being cured for nasopharyngeal carcinoma: results of a multicenter patient-based study in China

Background The survival rates of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) have improved significantly, but there is no consensus on whether they can be considered cured. We aimed to determine whether a statistical cure could be achieved for patients with NPC in the contemporary therapeutic landscape. Methods This retrospective multicenter study enrolled 6315 patients with nonmetastatic NPC from nonendemic and endemic regions of China from 2007 to 2020. We applied mixture and nonmixture cure models to estimate the cure probabilities and cure times by incorporating background mortality for the general population, matching by gender, age, and diagnosed year. Findings With death as the uncured event, the probability of patients with NPC achieving a life expectancy at par with the general population was 78.1%. Considering progression as the uncured event, the likelihood of patients attaining a life expectancy without progression equivalent to that of the general population was 72.4%. For individuals, the probabilities of achieving cure were conditional and time-dependent, requiring approximately 7.1 and 4.7 years with 95% certainty, respectively. The corresponding cure times for uncured patients were 8.9 and 6.8 years, respectively. The cure probability was correlated with age, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score, TNM staging, Epstein–Barr virus DNA copies, and lactate dehydrogenase. The correlation was excellent between 5-year overall survival/progression-free survival and cure fractions. Interpretation Statistical cure is potentially achievable among patients with NPC undergoing contemporary treatment modalities. The results hold significant potential implications for both clinical practice and patient perspectives. Funding National High Level Hospital Clinical Research Funding; Beijing Xisike Clinical Oncology Research Foundation; Beijing hope run fund.