Adaptation strategies for winter wheat production at farmer fields under a changing climate: Employing crop and multiple global climate models

CONTEXT Climate change profoundly affects agriculture through increased occurrences of extreme weather events, directly affecting crop growth and food security. The North China Plain (NCP), a significant region for winter wheat production, faces challenges from the changing climate, which could threaten agricultural output and sustainability. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to evaluate the effects of a warming climate, fluctuating precipitation, and rising CO2 levels on winter wheat production in the NCP. Additionally, it developed adaptation strategies, such as modifying the timing of planting and adjusting irrigation and nitrogen fertilizer levels, to mitigate the negative impacts of a changing climate on grain production. METHODS Using the DSSAT CROPSIM CERES-Wheat and NWheat models, this study incorporated baseline climate data from 2001 to 2020 and future climate projections from 12 GCMs under the CMIP6 framework. The evaluation was segmented into four future terms (terms 1 to 4) spanning from 2021 to 2100, under two societal development scenarios known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs): SSP2–4.5 and SSP5–8.5. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS The projections indicated an increase in temperature and precipitation over the century, with the most substantial changes under the SSP5–8.5 scenario. Term 1 (2021–2040) forecasts predicted mild temperature increases (0.89 °C increase in average maximum temperature, 0.74 °C in average minimum temperature) and an 8% increase in precipitation. Term 4 (2081–2100) projections indicated a more severe climate impact, with maximum temperatures rising by 3.19 °C, minimum temperatures by 3.07 °C, and seasonal precipitation increasing by 23%. These climatic changes are expected to reduce the winter wheat growing season by 4–17%, decrease grain numbers by 3–21%, and reduce yield by 4–20% compared to the baseline. However, the increase in CO2 from terms 1 to 4 could enhance grain yield by 4–30% under SSP5–8.5, indicating a complex interaction between climatic factors and crop productivity. This study showed that adaptation strategies, including adjusting planting times (early October), irrigation levels (300–400 mm), and nitrogen fertilizer application (250–300 kg ha−1), can effectively minimize the negative impacts of warming on grain yield. SIGNIFICANCE This study underscores the critical need for immediate and effective adaptation strategies to address the impact of climate change on agriculture. By adjusting agricultural practices, the negative effects on winter wheat production in the NCP can be mitigated, thereby contributing to regional food security in the face of ongoing climate challenges.