A Bayesian approach to estimate the capacity factor of offshore wind farms on the Brazilian coast

This work presents a Bayesian approach for inferring the capacity factor of an offshore wind farm. The calculation of the capacity factor depends on the power curve model and the probabilistic wind speed model, which in this work follows a Weibull distribution, whose scale and shape parameters are estimated using a Bayesian approach where the priors are independent gamma distributions, the likelihood is the Weibull distribution, and the posteriors are obtained by Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. The application of the described methodology is illustrated through a case study of an offshore wind power project located on the Northern coast of the Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil.