Future Increases in Fire Should Inform Present Management of Fire-Infrequent Forests: A Post-Smoke Critique of “asbestos” Paradigms in the Northeastern USA and Beyond

In the summer of 2023, unprecedented amounts of smoke from Canadian wildfires descended upon the northeastern United States. As a result, millions of people in this fire-infrequent region were exposed to extremely hazardous air quality and grew more aware of wildland fire issues they had previously been largely insulated from. Before this event fades from memory, and before forecasted increases in fire activity reach the region and others like it across the globe, an opportunity exists to broadly reconsider fire management within currently fire-infrequent regions. We review related science and conclude that climate-change driven increases in fire activity are predicted for many fire-infrequent regions where fire-sensitive structures and species compositions have been recently promoted by strong adherence to passive “asbestos forest” management paradigms (i.e., approaches over-minimizing fire's historical influence). Without intervention, shifts towards drought- and fire- sensitive trees will continue ahead of forecasted increases in fire activity – risking future degradation of regional forests and associated ecosystem services. However, prescribed fire and mechanical surrogates – and research refining effective application – could enhance fire resilience by restoring disturbance-dependent biodiversity. Unfortunately, positive feedback between asbestos paradigms and ecological change in the absence of fire continue to limit the use of such tools and related research. The 2023 smoke event in the northeastern U.S. provides an opportunity to galvanize global stakeholder support for researching and applying disturbance-integrated land management. These perspectives will be key to enhancing forest resiliency across similar regions where fire activity is currently rare but predicted to increase in the future.