Development of a laboratory-based model to study the interaction between nutrients and Vibrio cholerae and predicting the spread of cholera outbreaks in the Indian subcontinent

Cholera is an infectious disease that is transmitted through contaminated water. The disease includes a long back history of epidemics. Despite the numerous hygiene and prevention techniques that have been developed for Cholera, outbreaks of cholera are still reported worldwide. The resolution to this issue lies in promptly identifying the area susceptible to cholera outbreaks, a matter that continues to perplex scientists and medical professionals. It has been reported that Vibrio is effective in nitrogen digestion because it contains the nasA gene. In this study, initially the impact of nutrients (nitrate and nitrite) on growth of Vibrio cholerae was determined, subsequently a relationship was developed between nutrient substrates and V. cholerae growth rate, using Monod model. Subsequently, the model was applied to large national river quality data set (2012–2014) developed by Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) and a possible cholerae outbreak zone was predicted. This work will definitely help the policy makers to develop management strategy for keeping rivers safe from future cholera outbreak.