Genetic discovery and risk prediction for type 1 diabetes in individuals without high-risk HLA-DR3/DR4 haplotypes

Over 10% of type 1 diabetes (T1D) cases do not have high-risk HLA-DR3 or DR4 haplotypes with distinct clinical features such as later onset and reduced insulin dependence. To identify genetic drivers of T1D in the absence of DR3/DR4, we performed association and fine-mapping analyses in 12,316 non-DR3/DR4 samples. Risk variants at the MHC and other loci genome-wide had heterogeneity in effects on T1D dependent on DR3/DR4, and non-DR3/DR4 T1D had evidence for a greater polygenic burden. T1D-assocated variants in non-DR3/DR4 were more enriched for loci, regulatory elements, and pathways for antigen presentation, innate immunity, and beta cells, and depleted in T cells, compared to DR3/DR4. Non-DR3/DR4 T1D cases were poorly classified based on an existing genetic risk score GRS2, and we created a new GRS which highly discriminated non-DR3/DR4 T1D from both non-diabetes and T2D. In total we identified heterogeneity in T1D genetic risk and disease mechanisms dependent on high-risk HLA haplotype and which enabled accurate classification of T1D across HLA background. ### Competing Interest Statement KJG has done consulting for Genentech, received honoraria from Pfizer, and is a shareholder of Neurocrine biosciences. JC is an employee and shareholder of Pfizer. PB is an employee and shareholder of Shoreline biosciences. ### Funding Statement This work was supported by NIH grants DK120429 and DK122607 to K.J.G. ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below: The source data were openly available before the initiation of the study. Accession numbers to obtain the data included in this study are listed in Supplementary Table 1. I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes All data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors