Trends and shifts of climate extremes in Eastern Paraná State, Brazil

The escalating frequency and intensity of extreme climate events pose significant challenges in the context of the climate crisis, leading to substantial human and economic losses. This study aims to assess trends and disruptions in extreme climate indicators, focusing on precipitation and air temperature, within the watersheds of eastern Paran & aacute; state. Data from 1976 to 2015 were used, ensuring record failure rates below 5%. Trend analysis employed the extreme climate indicators developed by the Canadian Meteorological Service and the Mann-Kendall test, while discontinuities in the historical series were identified using normality tests (Pettitt, SNHT, and Buishand). Results revealed increasing trends in annual precipitation totals (PRCPTOT), the annual total of rainfall exceeding 95% of percentiles (R95p), and, notably, the index of daily rainfall concentration (SDII). The Upper Ribeira watershed displayed the highest frequency of trends associated with SDII. Moreover, widespread upward trends in air temperature were observed, particularly in Curitiba, where the average annual minimum temperature rose by 1.8 degrees C. Notably, many discontinuities in the historical climatic series were detected between the late 1980s and early 2000s. This research provides a comprehensive understanding of the modifications in extreme climate indicators in the study area, emphasizing significant trends of more heavy and concentrated rainfall and a robust increase in average air temperature.