Analysis of risk factors and construction of a prediction model for posttraumatic stress disorder among Chinese college students during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background To explore the risk factors of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) among Chinese college students during the COVID-19 pandemic and the construction and validation of risk prediction models. Methods A total of 10,705 university students were selected for the study. The questionnaire included the Generalized Anxiety Disorder 7 (GAD-7), Patient Health Questionnaire 9 (PHQ-9), PTSD Checklist for DSM-5 (PCL-5), and self-designed questionnaire. These assessments were conducted to facilitate the survey, construct the predictive model and validate the model's validity. Results Sex, left-behind experience, poverty status, anxiety score, and depression score were identified as independent risk factors influencing psychological trauma among Chinese college students during the COVID-19 pandemic, while COVID-19 infection emerged as a protective factor against psychological trauma. A column chart was constructed to visualize the six independent risk factors derived from logistic regression analysis. The Hosmer–Lemeshow test results (χ2 = 13.021, P = 0.111) indicated that the risk prediction model fitted well. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.864 in the model group and 0.855 in the validation group. The calibration curves of the model closely resembled the ideal curve. Decision curve analysis (DCA) revealed that the model provided net benefit and demonstrated good clinical utility. Limitations The validation of the model is currently restricted to internal assessments. However, further confirmation through larger sample sizes, multicenter investigations, and prospective studies is necessary. Conclusions The model effectively predicted PTSD risk among Chinese college students during the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating strong clinical applicability.