An Information Bottleneck Approach for Markov Model Construction.

Markov state models (MSMs) have proven valuable in studying dynamics of protein conformational changes via statistical analysis of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. In MSMs, the complex configuration space is coarse-grained into conformational states, with dynamics modeled by a series of Markovian transitions among these states at discrete lag times. Constructing the Markovian model at a specific lag time necessitates defining states that circumvent significant internal energy barriers, enabling internal dynamics relaxation within the lag time. This process effectively coarse-grains time and space, integrating out rapid motions within metastable states. Thus, MSMs possess a multi-resolution nature, where the granularity of states can be adjusted according to the time-resolution, offering flexibility in capturing system dynamics. This work introduces a continuous embedding approach for molecular conformations using the state predictive information bottleneck (SPIB), a framework that unifies dimensionality reduction and state space partitioning via a continuous, machine learned basis set. Without explicit optimization of the VAMP-based scores, SPIB demonstrates state-of-the-art performance in identifying slow dynamical processes and constructing predictive multi-resolution Markovian models. Through applications to well-validated mini-proteins, SPIB showcases unique advantages compared to competing methods. It autonomously and self-consistently adjusts the number of metastable states based on specified minimal time resolution, eliminating the need for manual tuning. While maintaining efficacy in dynamical properties, SPIB excels in accurately distinguishing metastable states and capturing numerous well-populated macrostates. This contrasts with existing VAMP-based methods, which often emphasize slow dynamics at the expense of incorporating numerous sparsely populated states. Furthermore, SPIB's ability to learn a low-dimensional continuous embedding of the underlying MSMs enhances the interpretation of dynamic pathways. With these benefits, we propose SPIB as an easy-to-implement methodology for end-to-end MSMs construction.