A Comparative Study of a Nomogram and Machine Learning Models in Predicting Early Hematoma Expansion in Hypertensive Intracerebral Hemorrhage

Rationale and Objectives Early identification for hematoma expansion can help improve patient outcomes. Presently, there are many methods to predict hematoma expansion. This study compared a variety of models to find a model suitable for clinical promotion. Materials and Methods Non-contrast head CT images and clinical data were collected from 203 patients diagnosed with hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage. Radiomics features were extracted from all CT images, and the dataset was randomly divided into training and validation sets (7:3 ratio) after applying the synthetic minority oversampling method. The radiomics score (Radscore) was calculated using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, combined with selected clinical predictors, to develop a nomogram and four machine learning (ML) models: logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost). Discrimination, calibration and clinical usefulness of the nomogram and ML models were assessed. Results The nomogram and ML models were integrated with Radscore and clinical predictors. The nomogram demonstrated favorable discriminatory ability in the training set with an AUC of 0.80, which was confirmed in the validation set (AUC=0.76). Among the ML models, the XGBoost model achieved the highest AUC (training set=0.89 and validation set=0.85), surpassing that of the nomogram. The XGBoost model exhibited good clinical usefulness. Conclusion Both the nomogram and ML models constructed by non-contrast head CT image-based Radscore integrated with clinical predictors can predict early hematoma expansion of hypertensive intracerebral hemorrhage, and the XGBoost model had the highest prediction performance and best clinical usefulness.