Is HIV Epidemic Control by 2030 Realistic?

Rates of new HIV acquisition remain unacceptably high in most populations in low-income, middle-income, and high-income settings despite advances in treatment and prevention strategies. Although biomedical advances in primary prevention of new infections exist, systematic scale-up of these interventions has not occurred at the pace required to end AIDS by 2030. Low population coverage, adherence to oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in settings with high rates of HIV acquisition, and the fact that a significant proportion of new HIV infections occurs in populations not identified as high risk and are hence not targeted for prevention approaches impedes current prevention strategies. Although long-acting injectables and monoclonal antibodies are promising approaches to help reduce incidence, high cost and the need for high coverage rates mean that a vaccine or vaccine-like intervention still remains the most likely scenario to produce a population-level impact on HIV incidence, especially in countries with generalised epidemics. Current global efforts are not sufficient to meet 2030 HIV epidemic goals; acknowledgment of this issue is required to ensure persistent advocacy for population-based control of the ongoing HIV pandemic.