Comparative effectiveness of treatment approaches for early invasive breast cancer.

BACKGROUND:Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) suggested breast conserving therapy (BCT) and mastectomy have similar survival for early-stage breast cancer, whereas observational studies reported survival advantage for BCT. We aimed to address biases in observational studies to compare the effect of BCT and mastectomy on survival. METHODS:We emulated a target trial using institutional cancer registry. We included adult women diagnosed with early invasive first primary breast tumors ≤ 5 cm between July 2011 and December 2017. We used cloning, censoring, and weighting to estimate risk differences (RDs) and risk ratios (RRs) for all-cause mortality and recurrence or all-cause mortality between BCT and mastectomy (reference). RESULTS:Our study population comprised 534 observations with breast cancer. Median age was 56 years and 65 % were racial/ethnic minorities. The 8-year RD was 1.5 % (95 % confidence limits [CL]: -7.0 %, 9.8 %) and RR was 1.1 (95 % CL: 0.57, 2.2) for all-cause mortality. Results for recurrence or mortality were similar. CONCLUSIONS:Our results suggest that target trial emulation to mitigate selection and immortal-time biases in observational studies may generate estimates that are more compatible with RCTs when comparing the effects of BCT and mastectomy on survival. Studies with longer follow-up and more events are needed to confirm our findings.