Pre-intervention Wait Time and Survival in People with Rheumatic Heart Disease in Uganda

BACKGROUND:There is an unmet surgical burden among people living with rheumatic heart disease (RHD) in Uganda. Nevertheless, risk factors associated with time to first intervention and preoperative mortality are poorly understood. METHODS:Individuals with RHD who met indications for valve surgery were identified using the Uganda National RHD Registry (January 2010-August 2022). Kaplan-Meier estimates and multivariable Cox proportional hazard models were used. RESULTS:Of the cohort with clinical RHD, 64% (1452 of 2269) met criteria for an index operation. Of those, 13.5% obtained a surgical intervention, whereas 30.6% died before the operation. The estimated likelihood of first operation was 50% at 9.3 years of follow-up (95% CI, 8.1-upper limit not reached). Intervention was more likely in men vs women (hazard ratio [HR], 1.78; 95% CI, 1.21-2.64), those with postsecondary education vs primary school or less (HR, 3.60; 95% CI, 1.88-6.89), and those with a history of atrial fibrillation (HR, 2.78; 95% CI, 1.63-4.76). Surgical intervention was less likely for adults vs those aged <18 years (HR, 0.49; 95% CI, 0.32-0.77) and those with New York Heart Association Functional Class III/IV vs I/II (HR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.32-0.83). The median preoperative survival time among those awaiting first operation was 4.6 years (95% CI, 3.9-5.7 years). History of infective endocarditis, right ventricular dysfunction, pericardial effusion, atrial fibrillation, and having surgical indications for multiple valves were associated with increased probability of death. CONCLUSIONS:Our analysis revealed a prolonged time to first surgical intervention and high preintervention death for RHD in Uganda, with factors such as age, sex, and education level remaining barriers to obtaining surgery.