Will industrial structure changes promote or reduce non-grain production? Evidence from the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Non-Grain Production (NGP) on cropland emerges from complex interactions of human activities and environmental changes, posing an important threat to China's national food security. Exploring the driving forces of NGP and impact patterns is crucial to improve existing cropland protection policies. This study analyzes the relationship between the change of industrial structure and NGP in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB)from 2000 to 2019 by using a spatial econometric model and a threshold effect model. Through the exploration of spatiotemporal evolution, the complex relationship between the change of industrial structure and the non-grain conversion of cultivated land is revealed. The results show that the change of industrial structure in the YREB affects the transformation of cultivated land use to a certain extent, and there is an obvious spatial spillover effect. At the same time, through the application of the threshold effect model, the threshold points affecting the relationship between industrial structure change and NGP conversion are found, which guides the formulation of relevant policies. Based on the research results, policy recommendations with regional differences are put forward to promote the coordinated development of land use protection and food security. Our study has important theoretical and practical significance for in-depth understanding of sustainable development and food security in the YREB and similar regions.