Wastewater threshold as an indicator of COVID-19 cases in correctional facilities for public health response: a modeling study

Although prison facilities are not fully isolated from the communities in which they are located, most of the population is confined and requires high levels of health vigilance and protection. This study aimed to examine the dynamic relationship between facility-level wastewater viral concentrations and the probability of at least one positive COVID-19 case within the facility. The study period was from January 11, 2021 to May 8, 2023. Wastewater samples were collected and analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 (N1) and pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) three times weekly across 14 prison facilities in Kentucky (USA). Positive clinical case reports were also provided. A hierarchical Bayesian facility-level temporal model with a latent lagged process was developed. We modeled facility-specific SARS-CoV-2 (N1) normalized by the PMMoV wastewater concentration ratio threshold associated with at least one COVID-19 clinical case at an 80% probability. The threshold differed among facilities. Across the 14 facilities, our model demonstrates a mean capture rate of 94.95% via the N1/PMMoV ratio threshold with pts≥0.5. However, as the pts threshold was set higher, such as at ≥0.9, the mean capture rate of the model was reduced to 60%. This robust performance underscores the effectiveness of the model for accurately detecting the presence of positive COVID-19 cases among incarcerated people. The findings of this study provide a facility-specific threshold model for public health response based on frequent wastewater surveillance.