Integrating Non-repairable Aging Failures in Power System Reliability Analysis

One of the main recent challenges that face power system utilities is managing the risk associated with power component aging. To effectively quantify and analyze this risk, this paper proposed a novel reliability evaluation framework that can accurately integrate component non-repairable aging failures in power system reliability analysis. First, a sophisticated model for component aging failures was established based on the 3-parameter Weibull distribution. Subsequently, a calculation method for unavailability due to aging failures was developed using a discretization approach, and a method for generating the state transition sequence of aging components was proposed based on the decomposition approach. These two methods can be integrated into the existing NSMCS- and SMCS-based system reliability analysis frameworks, respectively, to obtain reliability indices that account for aging failures. The effectiveness of the proposed reliability evaluation methods has been validated through various case studies. In practical engineering, planners can choose the appropriate evaluation method based on the specific characteristics and requirements of different systems.