From sleep patterns to heart rhythm: Predicting atrial fibrillation from overnight polysomnograms

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is often asymptomatic and thus under-observed. Given the high risks of stroke and heart failure among patients with AF, early prediction and effective management are crucial. Given the prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea among AF patients, electrocardiogram (ECG) analysis from polysomnography (PSG) offers a unique opportunity for early AF prediction. Our aim is to identify individuals at high risk of AF development from single‑lead ECGs during standard PSG. Methods We analyzed 18,782 single‑lead ECG recordings from 13,609 subjects undergoing PSG at the Massachusetts General Hospital sleep laboratory. AF presence was identified using ICD-9/10 codes. The dataset included 15,913 recordings without AF history and 2054 recordings from patients diagnosed with AF between one month to fifteen years post-PSG. Data were partitioned into training, validation, and test cohorts ensuring that individual patients remained exclusive to each cohort. The test set was held out during the training process.We employed two different methods for feature extraction to build a final model for AF prediction: Extraction of hand-crafted ECG features and a deep learning method. For extraction of ECG-hand-crafted features, recordings were split into 30-s windows, and those with a signal quality index (SQI) below 0.95 were discarded. From each remaining window, 150 features were extracted from the time, frequency, time-frequency domains, and phase-space reconstructions of the ECG. A compilation of 12 statistical features summarized these window-specific features per recording, resulting in 1800 features (12 × 150).A pre-trained deep neural network from the PhysioNet Challenge 2021 was updated using transfer learning to discriminate recordings with and without AF. The model processed PSG ECGs in 16-s windows to generate AF probabilities, from which 13 statistical features were extracted. Combining 1800 features from feature extraction with 13 from the deep learning model, we performed a feature selection and subsequently trained a shallow neural network to predict future AF and evaluated its performance on the test cohort. Results On the test set, our model exhibited sensitivity, specificity, and precision of 0.67, 0.81, and 0.3, respectively, for AF prediction. Survival analysis revealed a hazard ratio of 8.36 (p-value: 1.93 × 10−52) for AF outcomes using the log-rank test. Conclusions Our proposed ECG analysis method, utilizing overnight PSG data, shows promise in AF prediction despite modest precision, suggesting false positives. This approach could enable low-cost screening and proactive treatment for high-risk patients. Refinements, including additional physiological parameters, may reduce false positives, enhancing clinical utility and accuracy.