Identifying the high-benefit population for weight management-based cardiovascular disease prevention in Japan

Background Cardiovascular-disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death, and the association between obesity and CVD is particularly significant among women. Given the evidence highlighting the significance of weight-gain velosity, we aimed to elucidate its influence on cardio-ankle vascular index (CAVI), a reliable surrogate marker of CVD, and identify the high-benefit population where this influence is most pronounced. Methods This multicenter retrospective study used electronic data from annual health checkups for workers in Japan. Individuals who voluntarily measured CAVI in 2019 were included, and weight-gain velosity was defined as the mean BMI gain from 2015 to 2019. Our primary outcome was the relationship between weight-gain velosity and CAVI. Results Among 459 individuals, 53 had CAVI ≥ 9. Random forest analysis revealed that age was the most important factor, followed by lipid metabolism, weight-gain velosity, and glucose metabolism, with sex being the least important. Non-linear regression analysis of the effect of age on CAVI ≥ 9 showed the effect was pronounced after age 60, and the trend was greater in women. Among individuals aged 60 or younger, the aOR of weight-gain velosity for CAVI ≥ 9 was significantly positive (aOR 11.95, 95 %CI 1.13–126.27), while it was not significant for those older than 60. The relationship between weight-gain velosity and CAVI provides a new perspective on CVD risk factors. The effects of age, especially after 60, and weight-gain velosity in early- to middle-adulthood on arterial stiffness are emphasized. Conclusions These findings underscore the importance of weight management under age 60, especially in women.