JN.1: Enhanced Immune Evasion Ability Propels It to Become the Predominant Strain in China, Unlikely to Trigger Pandemic Similar to Late 2022

We tracked the immune landscape in the population after the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in late 2022 in China. Our findings suggested that low levels of neutralizing antibodies against BA.5 subbranches before the pandemic might have contributed to the national outbreak at the end of 2022. The widespread breakthrough infections increased immunity to BA.5, XBB.1.5/1.9.1, JN.1, and inhibited the new wave of large-scale infection caused by XBB subbranches in China. Additionally, JN.1 showed enhanced immune evasion capabilities, but Chinese residents had comparable levels of neutralizing antibodies against JN.1 as observed for XBB 1.5 among confirmed cases at the end of 2022. Therefore, we anticipated that JN.1 will replace XBB subbranches as the predominant epidemic mutant in subsequent transmissions within China. However, it will be unlikely to cause a large-scale spread comparable to that witnessed at the end of 2022, with transmission patterns potentially resembling those observed for XBB post-pandemic.