Impact of seasonal global land surface temperature (LST) change on gross primary production (GPP) in the early 21st century

Understanding the impact of global land surface temperature (LST) changes on gross primary production (GPP) is crucial for addressing global sustainability challenges effectively. This article explores the effects of winter and summer temperature variations on GPP from 2001 to 2020 on a global scale, employing a range of modeling techniques to investigate the complex relationship between temperature changes and GPP. The study employs various modeling approaches, including linear regression models, artificial neural networks, Random Forest (RF) models, and the XGBoost algorithm to examine both linear and non-linear relationships between global temperature changes and GPP. The results reveal that the RF and XGBoost models effectively capture the non-linear relationship between LST and GPP during both summer and winter, demonstrating a high level of statistical significance (P < 0.01) and achieving R2 values of 0.598. Furthermore, the study applies a Sen+MK trend analysis model to identify six distinct trend patterns in LST and GPP during both summer and winter seasons. In summer, the area exhibiting a non-significant increasing trend (NSI) for GPP covers 65,066,274.77 km2, whereas in winter, a strong significant decreasing trend (SSD) for GPP spans 64,537,108.31 km2. Notably, GPP patterns closely mirror those of LST, suggesting that rising high-temperature conditions during summer lead to reduced GPP, while increased low temperatures during winter promote GPP growth. Robust correlations between LST and GPP are observed under various trend conditions in both summer and winter, displaying strong statistical significance (P < 0.01), with SSD achieving a maximum R2 of 0.594. These findings contribute significantly to our comprehensive understanding of the dynamic relationship between LST and GPP and offer valuable insights for addressing the sustainable development of global climate change challenges.