Ice phenology interactions with water and air temperatures in high mountain lakes

Ice phenology is of great importance for the thermal structure of lakes and ponds and the biology of lake species. Under the current climate change conditions, ice-cover duration has been reduced by an advance in ice-off, and a delay in ice-on, and future projections foresee this trend as continuing. Here, we describe the current ice phenology of Pyrenean high mountain lakes and ponds, including ice-cover duration and ice-on and ice-off dates. We use mixed models to identify the variables that explain the observed patterns, extrapolate them across all water bodies in the mountain range, and relate the seasonality of air and water temperatures with ice phenology using structural equation models. Ice phenology was obtained from the temperature series of 85 lakes and ponds for fourteen years, including 2001 to 2004 and 2009 to 2019. We discovered that high autumn precipitation was related to earlier ice-on dates. We found that earlier ice-off dates were associated with higher following-summer water temperatures. We found a greater predictability of ice-off dates and ice-cover duration than ice-on dates. Altitude was the most important variable explaining the variation in ice phenology, followed by latitude, which was related to climatic differences among the northern and southern slopes of the mountain range. The lake area was significant for ice-on dates and ice-cover duration. The interannual variability in air temperature and radiation was remarkable for the ice-off date and ice-cover duration but not for the ice-on date. In contrast, wind speed was related to an earlier ice-off date and shorter ice-cover duration. All the measured lakes and ponds froze in winter during the studied period, a feature maintained in the extrapolation to the whole set of water bodies.