Analysis and regularity of ablation resistance performance of ultra-high temperature ceramic matrix composites using data-driven strategy

High costs and time consuming associated with experimental trial-and-error result in low efficiency, creating an urgent need for a more effective strategy for ultra-high temperature ceramic matrix composites (UHTCMCs) development. Inspired by the exceptional performance of machine learning (ML) algorithms across various domains, this work employs ML algorithms to construct models and conduct in-depth analysis of the key factors and their patterns influencing the ablation resistance of UHTCMCs. A set of 26 dimensional features that could potentially impact the ablation resistance of UHTCMCs were established based on domain knowledge. Eight typical ML models were used to build and predict the linear ablation rate (LAR) of UHTCMCs. Results show that the random forest model has optimal generalization performance, with mean absolute error (MAE), mean squared error (MSE), and coefficient of determination (R2) being 2.75 μm s-1 and 7.3 (μm s-1)2, and 0.71 respectively. The Shapley additive explanations values based on the random forest model reveal that the key features affecting the LAR of UHTCMCs are ranked as average melting point of ceramics (AMPC) > thermal conductivity of material (TCM) > thermal expansion coefficient of oxides (TECO) > fabrication temperature of material (FTM), all showing a negative influence on the LAR. Symbolic regression further indicates that AMPC, TCM, and TECO have an exponential negative correlation with LAR. These data-driven conclusions have been thoroughly validated through the use of Cf/(TiZrHfNbTa)C composites. The established model can accelerate the discovery of material knowledge and provide reliable guidance for UHTCMC development.