Disability level’s impact on blood pressure-mortality association in older long-term care adults: evidence from a large Chinese cohort study

Evidence of the optimal blood pressure (BP) target for older adults with disability in long-term care is limited. We aim to analyze the associations of BP with mortality in older adults in long-term care setting with different levels of disability. This prospective cohort study was based on the government-led long-term care programme in Chengdu, China, including 41,004 consecutive disabled adults aged ≥ 60 years. BP was measured during the baseline survey by trained medical personnel using electronic sphygmomanometers. Disability profile was assessed using the Barthel index. The association between blood pressure and mortality was analyzed with doubly robust estimation, which combined exposure model by inverse probability weighting and outcome model fitted with Cox regression. The non-linearity was examined by restricted cubic spline. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality, and the secondary endpoints were cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular mortality. The associations between systolic blood pressure (SBP) and all-cause mortality were close to a U-shaped curve in mild-moderate disability group (Barthel index ≥ 40), and a reversed J-shaped in severe disability group (Barthel index < 40). In mild-moderate disability group, SBP < 135 mmHg was associated with elevated all-cause mortality risks (HR 1.21, 95