A warmer climate impairs the growth performance of Central Europe's major timber species in lowland regions

Recent hot droughts have caused tree vitality decline and increased mortality in many forest regions on earth. Most of Central Europe's important timber species have suffered from the extreme 2018/2019 hot drought, confronting foresters with difficult questions about the choice of more drought- and heat-resistant tree species. We compared the growth dynamics of European beech, sessile oak, Scots pine and Douglas fir in a warmer and a cooler lowland region of Germany to explore the adaptive potential of the four species to climate warming (24 forest stands). The basal area increment (BAI) of the two conifers has declined since about 1990–2010 in both regions, and that of beech in the warmer region, while oak showed positive BAI trends. A 2 °C difference in mean temperatures and a higher frequency of hot days (temperature maximum >30 °C) resulted in greater sensitivity to a negative climatic water balance in beech and oak, and elevated sensitivity to summer heat in Douglas fir and pine. This suggests to include hot days in climate-growth analyses. Negative pointer years were closely related to dry years. Nevertheless, all species showed growth recovery within one to three years. We conclude that all four species are sensitive to a deteriorating climatic water balance and hot temperatures, and have so far not been able to successfully acclimate to the warmer climate, with especially Douglas and beech, but also Scots pine, being vulnerable to a warming and drying climate.