Effect of Self-rated Health on Changes in Social Mobility over Time

Objective: In this paper, we examine how self-rated health effects contribute to changes in social mobility over time. Methods: Over time changes in perceived social mobility are defined as (1) changes from 4 years ago to the present, and (2) changes from the present to 4 years in the future. A set of instrumental variable regressions is estimated to address the problems of reverse causality, omitted unobserved confounding variables, and measurement error. Results: Findings suggest that higher levels of self-rated health increase upward mobility. A one-unit increase in self-rated health leads to an increase in perceived social mobility from the past to the present by a factor of 0.368. Likewise, a one-unit increase in self-rated health leads to an increase in the expected perceived social mobility by a factor of 0.709. The results are robust for an alternative set of explanatory factors including country-level aggregated characteristics. Conclusions: Policymakers and health administrators should not ignore the effect of poor health as a significant obstacle to mobility. From the research viewpoint, classic single-stage regression models may underestimate the true magnitude of the health effect on over time changes in social mobility. Our findings also contribute to the literature on the Prospect of Upward Mobility (POUM) hypothesis by showing that health status is a strong determinant of upward mobility.