A mission success probability assessment framework for phased-mission-systems using extended graphical evaluation and review technique

Mission success probability (MSP) characterizes the capability of successfully completing the desired mission under external disruptions and internal failures, which is of great significance in assessing the availability of phased-mission-system (PMS). Therefore, in order to precisely resolve the MSP and analyze the PMS, a novel mission-driven four-level modular framework is established. Firstly, by dissecting and outlining missions from top to bottom, mission analysis implements multi-granularity analysis from abstract to concrete. The overall objective, sub-tasks, phased tasks, supported component and its configuration are all identified. Secondly, the general MSP assessment procedure is elaborated from the perspectives of operation level, phase level and mission level. Under the provided extended graphical evaluation and review technique (EGERT), the metrics of PMS are deduced from a single activity’s metrics while considering the cascading effect and time factor. Finally, the presented model is employed to illustrate how the MSP evaluation is carried out in a regional air defensive system of systems.