Predictive Modeling for One-Year Lower Extremity Endovascular Revascularization Failure in Black Persons

Introduction Black persons bear a disproportionate burden of peripheral artery disease (PAD) and experience higher rates of endovascular revascularization failure (ERF) when compared with non-Hispanic White persons. We aimed to identify predictors of ERF in Black persons using predictive modeling. Methods This retrospective study included all persons identifying as Black who underwent an initial endovascular revascularization procedure for PAD between 2011 and 2018 at a midwestern tertiary care center. Three predictive models were developed using (1) logistic regression, (2) penalized logistic regression (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator [LASSO]), and (3) random forest (RF). Predictive performance was evaluated under repeated cross-validation. Results Of the 163 individuals included in the study, 113 (63.1%) experienced ERF at 1 y. Those with ERF had significant differences in symptom status (P < 0.001), lesion location (P < 0.001), diabetes status (P = 0.037), and annual procedural volume of the attending surgeon (P < 0.001). Logistic regression and LASSO models identified tissue loss, smoking, femoro-popliteal lesion location, and diabetes control as risk factors for ERF. The RF model identified annual procedural volume, age, PAD symptoms, number of comorbidities, and lesion location as most predictive variables. LASSO and RF models were more sensitive than logistic regression but less specific, although all three methods had an overall accuracy of ≥75%. Conclusions Black persons undergoing endovascular revascularization for PAD are at high risk of ERF, necessitating need for targeted intervention. Predictive models may be clinically useful for identifying high-risk patients, although individual predictors of ERF varied by model. Further exploration into these models may improve limb salvage for this population.