ENSO-based outlook of droughts and agricultural outcomes in Afghanistan

Drought is one of the key drivers of food insecurity in Afghanistan, which is among the most food insecure countries in the world. In this study, we build on previous research and seek to answer the central question: "What is the influence of El Nin o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on drought outlooks and agricultural yield outcome in Afghanistan, and how do these influences vary spatially ? " We do so by utilizing multiple indicators of droughts and available wheat yield reports. We find a clear distinction in the probability of drought (defined as being in the lower tercile) in Afghanistan during La Nin a compared to El Nin o events since 1981. The probability of drought in Afghanistan increased during La Nin a, particularly in the North, Northeast, and West regions. La Nin a events are related to an increase in the probability of snow drought, particularly in parts of the Amu Darya basin. It is found that relative to El Nin o events, snow water equivalent [total runoff] during La Nin a events January -March (March -July total runoff) decreases between 9% and 30% (28% -42%) for the five major basins in the country. The probability of agricultural drought during La Nin a events is found to be higher than 70% in the rainfed and irrigated areas of the Northeast, North, and West regions. This result is at least partly supported by reported wheat yield composites related to La Nin a events that tend to be lower than for El Nin o events across all regions in the case of rainfed wheat (statistically significant in Northeast, West, and South regions) and in some cases for irrigated wheat. The results of this study have direct implications for improving early warning of worsening food insecurity in Afghanistan during La Nin a events, given that we now have long -lead and skillful forecasts of ENSO up to 18 -24 months in advance, which could potentially be used to provide earlier warning of worsening food insecurity in Afghanistan