Seismic fragility curves fitting revisited: ordinal regression models and their generalization

This research conducts a thorough reevaluation of seismic fragility curves by utilizing ordinal regression models, moving away from the commonly used log-normal distribution function known for its simplicity. It explores the nuanced differences and interrelations among various ordinal regression approaches, including Cumulative, Sequential, and Adjacent Category models, alongside their enhanced versions that incorporate category-specific effects and variance heterogeneity. The study applies these methodologies to empirical bridge damage data from the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake, using both frequentist and Bayesian inference methods, and conducts model diagnostics using surrogate residuals. The analysis covers eleven models, from basic to those with heteroscedastic extensions and category-specific effects. Through rigorous leave-one-out cross-validation, the Sequential model with category-specific effects emerges as the most effective. The findings underscore a notable divergence in damage probability predictions between this model and conventional Cumulative probit models, advocating for a substantial transition towards more adaptable fragility curve modeling techniques that enhance the precision of seismic risk assessments. In conclusion, this research not only readdresses the challenge of fitting seismic fragility curves but also advances methodological standards and expands the scope of seismic fragility analysis. It advocates for ongoing innovation and critical reevaluation of conventional methods to advance the predictive accuracy and applicability of seismic fragility models within the performance-based earthquake engineering domain.