Interpretable machine learning models for predicting the incidence of antibiotic- associated diarrhea in elderly ICU patients

Antibiotic-associated diarrhea (AAD) can prolong hospitalization, increase medical costs, and even lead to higher mortality rates. Therefore, it is essential to predict the incidence of AAD in elderly intensive care unit(ICU) patients. The objective of this study was to create a prediction model that is both interpretable and generalizable for predicting the incidence of AAD in elderly ICU patients. We retrospectively analyzed data from the First Medical Center of the People’s Liberation Army General Hospital (PLAGH) in China. We utilized the machine learning model Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Shapley’s additive interpretation method to predict the incidence of AAD in elderly ICU patients in an interpretable manner. A total of 848 adult ICU patients were eligible for this study. The XGBoost model predicted the incidence of AAD with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) of 0.917, sensitivity of 0.889, specificity of 0.806, accuracy of 0.870, and an F1 score of 0.780. The XGBoost model outperformed the other models, including logistic regression, support vector machine (AUC = 0.809), K-nearest neighbor algorithm (AUC = 0.872), and plain Bayes (AUC = 0.774). While the XGBoost model may not excel in absolute performance, it demonstrates superior predictive capabilities compared to other models in forecasting the incidence of AAD in elderly ICU patients categorized based on their characteristics.