The heterogeneous distribution of critical metal mineral resources: An impending geopolitical issue

Concerns that anthropologic carbon emissions will result in catastrophic climate change have resulted in Net Zero policies that have energized a clean energy transition in developed, particularly western, countries. This is resulting in attempts to produce so-called ‘renewable’ energy using critical metals that, unfortunately, are largely non-renewable. The critical metals that are essential to this clean energy transition occur in rare mineral deposits (0.02% of the Earth's land surface) that are ∼10 to >10,000 times enriched in metals relative to their crustal abundance. The deposits are part of larger scale mineral systems that require a rare conjunction of parameters that involve natural recycling of metals through the crust and mantle via the Earth's unique subduction system during the tectonic evolution of the continents. As each continent had its own unique tectonic history, the global distribution of these rare metallic mineral deposits is very heterogeneous. A major geopolitical issue for critical metal supply is represented by the evolution of BRICS as an economic group that comprises Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, all metal-endowed nations, with only metal-endowed Australia and Canada and a few lesser endowed countries firmly aligned with another group strategically allied with the USA. In stark contrast, a well-endowed China has abundant critical metal deposits and obtains trace critical metals through processing of metallurgical biproducts of base metal ores, leading to a growing domination of the clean energy industry. Critical metals, particularly Ga, Ge, and REEs, and graphite are already used in trade disputes among some countries and industrial weaponization using critical metals such as Ni on to global markets is already evident. From a geoscience viewpoint, in the short term, global exploration is needed to provide a more homogeneous distribution of critical metal deposits. However, exploration is hampered by increasing environmental, and human rights issues and sovereign risks that are becoming ever more challenging for most major mining and exploration companies in western countries. This requires that a global circular economy involving recycling is a priority.