Deep Learning reveals lung shape differences on baseline chest CT between mild and severe COVID-19: A multi-site retrospective study

Severe COVID-19 can lead to extensive lung disease causing lung architectural distortion. In this study we employed machine learning and statistical atlas-based approaches to explore possible changes in lung shape among COVID-19 patients and evaluated whether the extent of these changes was associated with COVID-19 severity. On a large multi-institutional dataset (N=3443), three different populations were defined; a) healthy (no COVID-19), b) mild COVID-19 (no ventilator required), c) severe COVID-19 (ventilator required), and the presence of lung shape differences between them were explored using baseline chest CT. Significant lung shape differences were observed along mediastinal surfaces of the lungs across all severity of COVID-19 disease. Additionally, differences were seen on basal surfaces of the lung when compared between healthy and severe COVID-19 patients. Finally, an AI model (a 3D residual convolutional network) characterizing these shape differences coupled with lung infiltrates (ground-glass opacities and consolidation regions) was found to be associated with COVID-19 severity.