Machine learning-based health environmental-clinical risk scores in European children

Early life environmental stressors play an important role in the development of multiple chronic disorders. Previous studies that used environmental risk scores (ERS) to assess the cumulative impact of environmental exposures on health are limited by the diversity of exposures included, especially for early life determinants. We used machine learning methods to build early life exposome risk scores for three health outcomes using environmental, molecular, and clinical data. In this study, we analyzed data from 1622 mother-child pairs from the HELIX European birth cohorts, using over 300 environmental, 100 child peripheral, and 18 mother-child clinical markers to compute environmental-clinical risk scores (ECRS) for child behavioral difficulties, metabolic syndrome, and lung function. ECRS were computed using LASSO, Random Forest and XGBoost. XGBoost ECRS were selected to extract local feature contributions using Shapley values and derive feature importance and interactions. ECRS captured 13%, 50% and 4% of the variance in mental, cardiometabolic, and respiratory health, respectively. We observed no significant differences in predictive performances between the above-mentioned methods.The most important predictive features were maternal stress, noise, and lifestyle exposures for mental health; proteome (mainly IL1B) and metabolome features for cardiometabolic health; child BMI and urine metabolites for respiratory health. Besides their usefulness for epidemiological research, our risk scores show great potential to capture holistic individual level non-hereditary risk associations that can inform practitioners about actionable factors of high-risk children. As in the post-genetic era personalized prevention medicine will focus more and more on modifiable factors, we believe that such integrative approaches will be instrumental in shaping future healthcare paradigms. Growing up in different environments can greatly affect children’s health later in life. This research looked at how living in cities, being exposed to chemicals, and other experiences before birth and during childhood, work together to influence children’s mental, cardiovascular and respiratory health. We used advanced computer programs to help us understand these effects and estimate health risk scores. These scores are simple numerical measures that help us quantify the likelihood of children developing health issues based on their environmental exposures. Using those scores, the study identified key factors impacting children’s health, in particular psycho-social, perceived environmental and prenatal pollutant exposures for mental health. It also revealed complex patterns and interactions between environmental factors. The results highlighted the potential of such risk scores to support the identification of actionable factors in high-risk children, informing tailored prevention measures in healthcare. Guimbaud et al. use machine learning in a dataset of 1600 European mother-child pairs to link early-life environmental exposures with children’s health. Through the computation of environmental-clinical risk scores, they unveil complex interactions and nonlinear patterns among these factors, underscoring their intricate role in children’s health.