Exploring the environmental risks and seasonal variations of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in fine road dust in resource-based cities based on Monte Carlo simulation, geo-detector and random forest model

The environmental pollution caused by mineral exploitation and energy consumption poses a serious threat to ecological security and human health, particularly in resource-based cities. To address this issue, a comprehensive investigation was conducted on potentially toxic elements (PTEs) in road dust from different seasons to assess the environmental risks and influencing factors faced by Datong, a resource-based city. Multivariate statistical analysis and absolute principal component score were employed for source identification and quantitative allocation. The geo-accumulation index and improved Nemerow index were utilized to evaluate the pollution levels of PTEs. Monte Carlo simulation was employed to assess the ecological-health risks associated with PTEs content and source orientation. Furthermore, geo-detector and random forest analysis were conducted to examine the key environmental variables and driving factors contributing to the spatiotemporal variation in PTEs content. In all PTEs, Cd, Hg, and Zn exhibited higher levels of content, with an average content/background value of 3.65 to 4.91, 2.53 to 3.34, and 2.15 to 2.89 times, respectively. Seasonal disparities were evident in PTEs contents, with average levels generally showing a pattern of spring (winter) > summer (autumn). PTEs in fine road dust (FRD) were primarily influenced by traffic, natural factors, coal-related industrial activities, and metallurgical activities, contributing 14.9-33.9%, 41.4-47.5%, 4.4-8.3%, and 14.2-29.4% to the total concentrations, respectively. The overall pollution and ecological risk of PTEs were categorized as moderate and high, respectively, with the winter season exhibiting the most severe conditions, primarily driven by Hg emissions from coal-related industries. Non-carcinogenic risk of PTEs for adults was within the safe limit, yet children still faced a probability of 4.1%-16.4% of unacceptable risks, particularly in summer. Carcinogenic risks were evident across all demographics, with children at the highest risk, mainly due to Cr and smelting industrial sources. Geo-detector and random forest model indicated that spatial disparities in prioritized control elements (Cr and Hg) were primarily influenced by particulate matter (PM10) and anthropogenic activities (industrial and socio-economic factors); variations in particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and meteorological factors (wind speed and precipitation) were the primary controllers of seasonal disparities of Cr and Hg. Environmental Implication This study illuminates the pressing environmental significance of addressing potentially toxic elements (PTEs) emanating from industrial activities and vehicular emissions. It advocates for the development and implementation of comprehensive, targeted strategies to mitigate PTE pollution. By identifying seasonal variations in PTE concentrations, the findings emphasize the need for adaptive management practices that are responsive to temporal changes in pollution levels. Furthermore, the heightened exposure risks to vulnerable populations highlight the urgent necessity for protective measures. Collectively, these insights stress the imperative for holistic environmental policies to safeguard ecological integrity and public health across urban landscapes impacted by industrialization.