The utility of body indices for diabetes prediction in patients with fasting hyperglycemia: a 10-year follow-up study

Objective: We aimed to compare the new body indices against traditional body mass index in their ability to predict diabetes development in patients with fasting hyperglycemia. Design and method: Baseline examination of population-based cohort was performed 2012-2013 in the framework of epidemiological study ESSE-RF which included questionnaires, anthropometry (weight, height, waist and hip circumference), laboratory tests (fasting glucose, glycated hemoglobin, lipids) and target organ damage assessment. In 2022-2023 patients with fasting hyperglycemia at baseline visit were re-examined to register onset of diabetes mellitus (DM), glucose and glycated hemoglobin levels. Several anthropometric indices were calculated: body mass index (BMI), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), body shape index (ABSI), body roundness index (BRI), visceral adiposity index (VAI), Chinese visceral adiposity index (CVAI), and lipid accumulation product (LAP). Results: In total 72 participants were re-examined - 35 men and 37 women (mean age 43,6 years and 50,5 years, respectively). New onset of DM was confirmed in 15 patients (20,8%), in 6 men and 9 women. According to multiple regression analysis the most significant predictors of DM development were BRI (p=0,04, beta=-2,2) and WHTR (p=0,04, beta=2,94), but not BMI (p=0,42, beta=-0,22), model (R2 = 0.32; p=0,0014). After adjustment for traditional risk factors (sex, triglycerides, age, insulin, high density lipoproteins, waist circumference, glucose), the most significant diabetes predictors were the WHTR (p=0,01, beta=4,23) and VAI indices (p=0,04, beta=0,732), model (R2 = 0.547; p=1x10-4). We used individual body indices as predictors for the DM and estimated the area under the ROC curve (AUC). The AUC ROC for BRI, WHTR, CVAI and ABSI was greater than for traditional BMI, while for VAI and LAP indices performed worse than BMI (Table 1). Conclusions: New body composition indices involving advanced mathematical framework and including extended set of parameters - BRI, WHTR, CVAI and ABSI, are more reliable diabetes predictors than BMI in patients with fasting hyperglycemia after 10 years of follow-up. This work was supported by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation (Agreement # 075-15-2022-301) to A.Konradi.