Incidence and predictors of post-surgery atrial fibrillation occurrence: A cohort study in 53,387 patients

Introduction: Atrial fibrillation (AF) represents the most common arrhythmia in the postoperative setting. We aimed to investigate the incidence of postoperative AF (POAF) and determine its predictors, with a specific focus on inflammation markers. Methods: We performed a retrospective single tertiary center cohort study including consecutive adult patients who underwent a major surgical procedure between January 2016 and January 2020. Patients were divided into four subgroups according to the type of surgery. Results: Among 53,387 included patients (79.4% male, age 64.5 +/- 9.5 years), POAF occurred in 570 (1.1%) with a mean latency after surgery of 3.4 +/- 2.6 days. Ninety patients died (0.17%) after a mean of 13.7 +/- 8.4 days. The 28-day arrhythmia-free survival was lower in patients undergoing lung and cardiovascular surgery (p < .001). Patients who developed POAF had higher levels of C-reactive protein (CRP) (0.70 +/- 0.03 vs. 0.40 +/- 0.01 log10 mg/dl; p < .001). In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, adjusting for confounding factors, CRP was an independent predictor of POAF [HR per 1 mg/dL increase in log-scale = 1.81 (95% CI 1.18-2.79); p = .007]. Moreover, independent predictors of POAF were also age (HR/1 year increase = 1.06 (95% CI 1.04-1.08); I < .001), lung and cardiovascular surgery (HR 23.62; (95% CI 5.65-98.73); p < .001), and abdominal and esophageal surgery (HR 6.26; 95% CI 1.48-26.49; p = .013). Conclusions: Lung and cardiovascular surgery had the highest risk of POAF in the presented cohort. CRP was an independent predictor of POAF and postsurgery inflammation may represent a major driver in the pathophysiology of the arrhythmia.