Design of Machine Learning Algorithms and Internal Validation of a Kidney Risk Prediction Model for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Objective: This study aimed to explore specific biochemical indicators and construct a risk prediction model for diabetic kidney disease (DKD) in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods: This study included 234 T2D patients, of whom 166 had DKD, at the First Hospital of Jilin University from January 2021 to July 2022. Clinical characteristics, such as age, gender, and typical hematological parameters, were collected and used for modeling. Five machine learning algorithms [Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), and Random Forest (RF)] were used to identify critical clinical and pathological features and to build a risk prediction model for DKD. Additionally, clinical data from 70 patients (nT2D = 20, nDKD = 50) were collected for external validation from the Third Hospital of Jilin University. Results: The RF algorithm demonstrated the best performance in predicting progression to DKD, identifying five major indicators: estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), glycated albumin (GA), Uric acid, HbA1c, and Zinc (Zn). The prediction model showed sufficient predictive accuracy with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.960 (95% CI: 0.936-0.984) and 0.9326 (95% CI: 0.8747-0.9885) in the internal validation set and external validation set, respectively. The diagnostic efficacy of the RF model (AUC = 0.960) was significantly higher than each of the five features screened with the highest feature importance in the RF model. Conclusion: The online DKD risk prediction model constructed using the RF algorithm was selected based on its strong performance in the internal validation.