Identification of neurological complications in childhood influenza: a random forest model

Among the neurological complications of influenza in children, the most severe is acute necrotizing encephalopathy (ANE), with a high mortality rate and neurological sequelae. ANE is characterized by rapid progression to death within 1–2 days from onset. However, the knowledge about the early diagnosis of ANE is limited, which is often misdiagnosed as simple seizures/convulsions or mild acute influenza-associated encephalopathy (IAE). To develop and validate an early prediction model to discriminate the ANE from two common neurological complications, seizures/convulsions and mild IAE in children with influenza. This retrospective case-control study included patients with ANE (median age 3.8 (2.3,5.4) years), seizures/convulsions alone (median age 2.6 (1.7,4.3) years), or mild IAE (median age 2.8 (1.5,6.1) years) at a tertiary pediatric medical center in China between November 2012 to January 2020. The random forest algorithm was used to screen the characteristics and construct a prediction model. Of the 433 patients, 278 (64.2