Urine Epidermal Growth Factor and Kidney Function Decline in Middle-Aged Adults.

Rationale & Objective:The diagnosis and prognostication of chronic kidney disease (CKD) largely rely on glomerular measures that may not reflect tubular damage. We investigated the associations of urine kidney tubule biomarkers with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) change among middle-aged adults, when chronic diseases typically emerge. Study Design:An observational cohort study. Setting & Participants:A total of 1,145 participants of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study without CKD, hypertension, or cardiovascular disease at the year 20 visit. Exposures:Seven different biomarkers of tubular health: urine epidermal growth factor (EGF), alpha-1-microglobulin (α1m), interleukin-18, kidney injury molecule-1, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, uromodulin, and chitinase-3-like protein 1. Outcomes:Ten-year eGFR change and incident reduced eGFR (new onset of eGFR < 60 mL/min/1.73 m2). Analytical Approach:We examined associations of tubular health biomarkers with 10-year eGFR change and incident reduced eGFR with linear mixed models and interval-censored proportional hazards regression models, respectively. Both minimally and fully adjusted models were controlled for urine creatinine levels. Results:The mean age of participants was 44.8 ± 3.7 years, with 39% African American and 56% female. The average 10-year change in eGFR was -18.6 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI, -19.4 to -17.8). In contrast to the other tubular biomarkers, which showed conflicting results, EGF demonstrated strong, consistent associations with both kidney outcomes. Each 1-standard deviation (SD) higher EGF was associated with a 2.37 mL/min/1.73 m2 (95% CI, 0.64-4.10) smaller 10-year decrease in eGFR and a 42% (95% CI, 4%-64%) lower risk of incident reduced eGFR in the fully adjusted model. Limitations:Observational design, measurements of eGFR were done only at 5-year intervals during follow-up. Conclusions:In middle-aged, community-dwelling adults without hypertension, cardiovascular disease or CKD, higher urine EGF concentrations are associated with slower eGFR decline, whereas other kidney tubule biomarkers lacked a consistent association with kidney function decline.