Population viability analysis on the Iranian endangered goat breeds

Because of the downward trend of breeding goats and flocks, habitat loss, using other breeds in reproduction, and the presence of survival-threatening factors, Iranian goat breeds, including Markhoz, Adani, and Najdi, are considered endangered populations. This research aims to investigate the current status and provide the necessary information to conserve these three endangered populations. For this purpose, the census data and the required parameters were collected from the available resources and flocks during the years of the project implementation. Then, two scenarios, the past and future dynamics of the population assuming continuing existing conditions, were simulated using the population viability analysis (PVA) method. Finally, the sensitivity analyses of parameters affecting the viability criteria were done. PVA was conducted using the Vortex simulation program version 10.5.6. The past dynamics simulation of the population showed that the biological parameters and assumptions used in the model have valid and reliable values   and frequencies, and they can be used in the simulation of different management scenarios. Based on this scenario, the inbreeding rates (∆F) for the Markhoz and Adani populations have reached above the critical level of 0.5%. The future dynamics simulation of the population showed that the process of increasing inbreeding and decreasing genetic diversity would accelerate, and the breeds' extinction probability would start in 2026, 2033, and 2031 for Markhoz, Adani, and Najdi, respectively. The mean time to the first extinction was also 15.4 ± 2.53, 26.68 ± 3.75, and 13.96 ±1.78 years, respectively. The sensitivity analyses indicated that adult does overharvest, the frequency of feed limitation, and competition with other breeds had the highest effect on the population viability criteria of the investigated breeds. Markhoz, Najdi, and Adani goats need urgent conservation measures. The results obtained in this research may prepare a suitable framework for providing conservation programs.