Soil properties modulate actual evapotranspiration and precipitation impacts on crop yields in the USA

Crop yields are affected by hydroclimatic and edaphic conditions, but their interacting roles are often neglected when assessing crop yields at the regional scale. Moreover, often used hydroclimatic conditions such as precipitation and temperature are not as physiologically linked to primary production and yields as actual evapotranspiration. Using statistical models, we quantified the combined effects of edaphic and hydroclimatic conditions on county yields of irrigated rice and rainfed corn, soybean, and spring and winter wheat in the USA (2000–2019). Precipitation and temperature, or actual evapotranspiration, aggregated during the growing season or before and after flowering/silk emergence, in interaction with soil sand content or bulk density, explained up to 87 % of the yield variability. However, actual evapotranspiration explained yields better than precipitation and temperature and their interactions for most combinations of crops and growth periods. At high actual evapotranspiration, yield plateaued or, for spring wheat, decreased. Yields were generally most sensitive to changes in hydroclimatic conditions during part of rather than the entire growing season, and most often after flowering. Soil texture and bulk density modulated the impacts of hydroclimatic conditions: corn and soybean yields were higher in finer soils compared with sandy soils under high evapotranspiration, but lower at low evapotranspiration. Additionally, the yield-maximizing precipitation decreased with sand content and increased with bulk density for most crops. Increasingly available actual evapotranspiration estimates, combined with soil properties, offer an alternative, and more physiologically-based, yield predictor over large climatic gradients to the more widely used precipitation and temperature.