Application of land-use change model for supporting land-use planning in An Bien district, Kien Giang province, Vietnam

Abstract Forecasting land-use change is a critical step in assisting land-use planning, especially for coastal areas that are influenced by many economic and natural environmental factors. This study aims to estimate land use changes based for An Bien district, Mekong Delta based on multi-criteria assessment of factors affecting land use change. The model has been calibrated with the 2015 land-use map and verified with the 2020 map. The results of land-use change analysis in An Bien district were carried out according two scenarios: (i) forecasting the area under present conditions and (ii) forecasting land use area in the case of economic benefits and suitable environmental conditions for aquaculture production. Scenario 1 showed that the results will not change much compared to the current situation, in which rice-shrimp plays a leading role locality, however Scenario 2 showed that shrimp area will rapidly rise. In general, the simulation results allow users to explore future planning possibilities and serve as a basis for selecting appropriate land-use types.