The spatial development of tourism over eight decades: a Horizon 2050 paper

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to show the spatial extent and growth of tourism and its likely patterns as past forces of change are replaced by new pressures to reduce climate change and meet new definitions of success. Design/methodology/approach - The approach involves a review of changes that have occurred over the Horizon period with a focus on the spatial spread and development of tourism, using and based on a literature review, past research and personal experience. Likely new developments are identified based on the expected result of influences including climate change mitigation and altered understandings of what is meant by success in tourism. Findings - Much of the spatial change in tourism has been evolutionary rather than revolutionary, but in the future, restrictive forces external to tourism may change travel patterns with severe effects on long haul travel and a change in travel mode. Research limitations/implications - The research focus needs to produce effective measures of success as understood by all stakeholders in tourist destinations. Alternative destinations will need to replace those long haul destinations no longer available and research needs to refocus on managing rather than solely attracting visitors. Practical implications - Long haul destinations will lose market share, destinations will change goals to satisfaction for stakeholders and travel modes will change to lower emission generators. Social implications - Destination choice will be reduced, transport modes may be limited and tourism closer to home will become the norm. Originality/value - A general overview of this type has not been presented before.