Towards net-zero emissions in global residential heating and cooling: a global scenario analysis

Abstract Accounting for 21% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, buildings play a crucial role in climate change mitigation. Demand-side interventions entail large energy and GHG emission reduction potentials. The effects of broader mitigation policies at the global level beyond energy efficiency improvements, including sufficiency and structural changes, and their interaction with cross-sectoral climate policies are, however, still unclear. Here, we assess a comprehensive set of scenarios to reduce residential space heating and cooling emissions towards net-zero targets. We find that activity reductions, fuel shifts, and technological improvements can reduce current global residential space heating and cooling CO2 emissions by 61% until 2050. Combining these demand-side interventions and stringent climate policies entails up to 96% reduction of current CO2 emissions by 2050. Neutralizing residual direct CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels for space heating would require additional interventions.