Applying the Hypothetical Extraction Method to Investigate Intersectoral Carbon Emission Linkages of China’s Transportation Sector

The transportation sector is an indispensable link in the industrial chain of an economic system. Considering the current push to comprehensively construct new patterns of development, the transportation sector is under huge pressure to achieve the goal of “carbon peak and carbon neutral”. Therefore, to develop low-carbon transportation in China, it is important to study the carbon emission linkages in its transportation sector in order to understand its potential and the factors affecting carbon mitigation. In this study, sectoral carbon emission linkages and dynamic changes during the period of 2002–2020 for the transportation sector in China were quantitatively investigated based on the input–output analysis and hypothetical extraction method (HEM). The results showed that the total carbon emission linkages for the transportation sector mainly experienced growth, increasing by 848.63 Mt from 2002 to 2020, with consistently stronger supply-side than demand-side carbon emission linkages. This indicates that the potential of the transportation sector for carbon reduction lies upstream in the chain of carbon emission linkages. Furthermore, the transportation sector was consistently a net export sector of carbon emissions, and net carbon transfer decreased with fluctuations. Regarding carbon emissions from the transportation sector, the construction sector was found to be main destination for the majority of these emissions, while the power supply sector was the largest source. The policy implications derived from this research can serve as a crucial lever for the low-carbon development of China’s transportation sector.