Potential distribution of wild edible fruit trees under climate change scenarios: promoting food security in a Neotropical region

Wild edible fruits are important genetic and economic plant resources. They represent a significant livelihood resource for the population and are valuable in coping with climate change and food poverty. This work aimed to model the potential distribution of ten species of wild edible fruits from the state of Veracruz. These species were modelled with present and future climate scenarios. To obtain the projections, we used the MaxLike R library and bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database under climate change scenarios with two radiative forcing trajectories (RCP4.5 and 8.5), and forecasts from three general circulation models (CCSM4, GISS.E2-R and MPI-ESM-LR) for the horizons 2050 and 2070. Then, we explore the spatial coincidence of the potential distribution of the fruits with geographic areas of Veracruz with high levels of marginalization, aiming to support the design of adaptative strategies to climate change. Pithecellobium dulce is the only species that will likely increase its current potential distribution in the future. The rest of the studied species Celtis caudata, Cordia dodecandra, Crataegus mexicana, Hymenaea courbaril, Manilkara sapota, Prunus serotina and Psidium guajava are projected to reduce their distribution area by more than 40