Dual Healthcare System Users and Risk of Opioid Use Disorder: A Deep Learning analysis

Abstract The opioid crisis has disproportionately affected U.S. veterans, leading the Veterans Health Administration to implement opioid prescribing guidelines. Veterans who receive care from both VA and non-VA providers—known as dual-system users — have an increased risk of Opioid Use Disorder (OUD). The interaction between dual-system use and demographic and clinical factors, however, has not been previously explored. We conducted a retrospective study of 856,299 patient instances from the Washington DC and Baltimore VA Medical Centers (2012–2019), using a deep neural network (DNN) and explainable Artificial Intelligence to examine the impact of dual-system use on OUD and how demographic and clinical factors interact with it. Of the cohort, 146,688(17%) had OUD, determined through Natural Language Processing of clinical notes and ICD-9/10 diagnoses. The DNN model, with a 78% area under the curve, confirmed that dual-system use is a risk factor for OUD, along with prior opioid use or other substance use. Interestingly, a history of other drug use interacted negatively with dual-system use regarding OUD risk. In contrast, older age was associated with a lower risk of OUD but interacted positively with dual-system use. These findings suggest that within the dual-system users, patients with certain risk profiles warrant special attention.